9 DFS Stats for your Week 12 plays
Let’s start with the obvious:
The winning lineup from week 11 DraftKings NFL $1.2M Play-Action
Quarterback: Jimmy Garoppolo Salary $6700, drafted 3.0%
Running back: Alvin Kamara Salary $7400, drafted 7.95%
Running back: Tevin Coleman Salary $6100 drafted 16.06%
Wide receiver: John Brown Salary $6400 drafted 6.75%
Wide receiver: DJ Chark Salary $6200 drafted 6.42%
Wide receiver: Deebo Samuel Salary $4000 drafted 24.20%
Tight end: Ross Dwelley Salary $3400 drafted 8.68%
Flex: Michael Gallup Salary $6500 drafted 7.63%
Defense: Raiders Salary $3300 drafted 11.82%
1. Positional Analysis
Garoppolo v. 32nd ranked passing defense (Cardinals)
Kamara v 2nd ranked rushing defense (Buccaneers)
Coleman v 27th ranked rushing defense (Panthers)
Brown v 20th ranked passing defense (Dolphins) ---Dolphins 31st ranked rushing defense but stayed away from Frank Gore and Devin Singletary
Chark v 11th ranked passing defense (Colts)
Samuel v 32nd ranked passing defense (Cardinals)
Dwelley v 32nd ranked passing defense (Cardinals) ---also a team allowing most fantasy points to tight ends
Went with wide receiver Gallup v team 30th against the pass (Lions)
Raiders v team ranked 30th in points scored (Bengals)
There are nine positions available to draft. The winning line-up drafted six positions that were under 10% owned. His highest was Samuel who was drafted by 24.2%. Followed by Coleman at 16.06% and the Raiders defense at 11.82%.
Don’t have to follow the crowd. In fact playing Kamara against the Bucs defense was the ultimate contrarian play (going with talent). Passing on Singletary against the Dolphins was also a contrarian play that paid off, for those in the top five.
3. Quarterbacks Best Match-Ups Week 12
Atlanta Falcons going against the Bucs who are 31st against the pass allowing 290.9 average yards Ryan 69.2% completion rate with 18 TD and 9 INT
Falcons a 4.5-point favorite. The over/under is 52.0.
Jameis Winston going against the Falcons who are 26th against the pass. However in the last two weeks the Falcons defense have held New Orleans Saints and Drew Brees to nine total points. Held the Carolina Panthers and Christian McCaffrey to three total points. Intercepted Kyle Allen four times with five sacks, while sacking Brees six times.
New York Jets going against the Oakland Raiders who are 27th against the pass.
The Raiders are a three-point favorite. The over/under for the game is 45.5.
Darnold has a 63.2% completion rate with 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions and 22 sacks. Last week v Washington Darnold passed for 293 yards with four touchdown, one interception and two sacks.
Jamison Crowder was most targeted player with eight targets.
Washington v 30th passing defense in Detroit Lions.
Lions are a 3.5-point favorite with a 42 over/under.
This will be Haskins third start. He has a 58.2% completion rate. He has thrown 2 touchdowns and five interceptions while being sacked 14 times. Against Jets last week he threw 214 yards with two touchdowns, one interception and six sacks.
Philadelphia Eagles v 28th ranked passing defense in Seattle Seahawks.
The over/under for the game is 49, with the Eagles a 1.5-point favorite.
Wentz has a 61.2% completion rate with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has been sacked 25 times.
The Seahawks @ Eagles projects to be a shoot-out with the second highest over/under.
The Bucs @ Falcons has the highest over/under with the Falcons less than a touchdown favorite. Winston as always is the quintessential boom or bust player. After week 11 Winston is QB11 in fantasy points.
4. Week 12 Wide Receiver Rankings
* According to fantasypros.com (PPR scoring)
Michael Thomas v Carolina Panthers: Thomas 114 targets, 94 receptions, five touchdowns
Julio Jones v Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jones 91 targets, 59 receptions, four touchdowns
DeAndre Hopkins v Indianapolis Colts: Hopkins 104 targets, 75 receptions, four touchdowns
Michael Evans @ Atlanta Falcons: 97 targets, 58 receptions, 7 touchdowns
Chris Goodwin @ Atlanta Falcons: 90 targets, 63 receptions, 7 touchdowns
Tyler Lockett @ Philadelphia Eagles: 76 targets, 62 receptions, 6 touchdowns
Odell Beckham Jr. v Miami Dolphins: 89 targets, 48 receptions, 1 touchdown
DJ Chark @ Tennessee Titans: 85 targets, 51 receptions, 8 touchdowns
Davanta Adams @ San Francisco: 57 targets, 39 receptions
Julian Edelman v Dallas Cowboys: 100 targets, 68 receptions, 4 touchdowns
DJ Moore @ New Orleans Saints: 94 targets, 62 receptions, 1 touchdown
Amari Cooper @ New England Patriots: 79 targets, 56 receptions, 7 touchdowns
Calvin Ridley v Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 64 targets, 44 receptions, 5 touchdowns
Cooper Kupp v Baltimore Ravens: 94 targets, 61 receptions, 5 touchdowns
Allen Robinson v New York Giants: 86 targets, 57 receptions, 3 touchdowns
5. Running Backs with Best Match-UP
Jaylen Samuels v Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals rank 32nd in rushing yards, yielding 167 yards on average per game. T
he Bengals have given up 12 total touchdowns and fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Steelers are predicted to win by 6.5 points.
Samuels (Conner has injury) averages 2.56 rushing yards per game. He also has 41 receiving targets and 34 receptions.
Nick Chubb v Miami Dolphins
Dolphins rank 31st against the run. They are giving up 148.3 average yards per game to opposing running backs. The Browns are predicted to win by 10.5.
Chubb averages 5.03 rushing yards per game. He also has 37 targets and 27 receptions.
Alvin Kamara v Carolina Panthers
Panthers rank 27th against the run, giving up an average of 128.4 yards per game. Saints are predicted to win by 9.5 points per game.
Kamara averages 4.58 rushing yards per game. He has 59 targets and 51 receptions.
Ty Johnson v Washington
Washington ranks 28th against the run, giving up an average of 133.9 yards per game. Detroit is favored by 3.5 points per game.
Johnson averages 3.46 rushing yards per game. He has 18 targets and 14 receptions.
Derrick Henry v Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars rank 29th against the run, giving up an average of 134.6 rushing yards per game. Titans are favored by 3 points per game.
Henry averages 4.45 rushing yards per game. He has 18 targets and 13 receptions.
6. Top 4 Tight Ends
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angels Ram: Andrews 70 targets, 48 receptions, 6 touchdowns.
Darren Waller, Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets: 72 targets, 56 receptions, 3 touchdowns
Ryan Griffin, New York Jets v Oakland Raiders who are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Griffin 30 targets, 25 receptions, 4 touchdowns
Zac Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles v Seattle Seahawks: Seahawks have given up the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends. Ertz: 86 targets, 55 receptions, 2 touchdowns
7. Defense v TE Stats
These are the bottom teams (fantasy purposes) against tight ends
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tight ends targeted 88 times, 62 receptions, 736 yards and 115.60 fantasy points; 11.8 fantasy points per game.
Bucs will be playing Atlanta Falcons. Austin Hooper is expected to miss game. Back-up tight-end Jaeden Graham, last week 2 targets, 2 receptions, 23 yards.
Tight ends targeted 80 times, 48 receptions, 571 yards; 9.9 fantasy points per game; 98.60 total fantasy points.
Raiders will be playing the Jets. See Griffin above.
Green Bay Packers
Tight ends targeted 80 targets, 57 receptions, 627 yards; 90.80 total fantasy points; 9.1 fantasy points per game.
Packers will be playing San Francisco 49ers. George Kittle status must be monitored. If Kittle out, Ross Dwelley in play. Dwelley last week 5 targets, 4 receptions, 2 touchdowns.
Tight ends targeted 82 times, 59 receptions, 577 yards; 87.90 total fantasy points; 8.8 fantasy points per game.
Cowboys will be playing New England Patriots. Ben Watson stats last week, 4 targets, 3 receptions 52 yards.
8. Sleeper Options to Consider
Quarterback - Ryan Tannehill v Jacksonville Jaguars
Tannehill is giving you points with both his passing and rushing.
The Jaguars are not what the used to be.
Running back - Derrius Guice v Detroit Lions
Guice is back off IR and well rested. He is now playing with a rookie quarterback who is looking like a rookie.
Last week Guice had seven rushing attempts for 24 yards. He also had a 45-yard touchdown reception.
And oh yeah, the Lions are 24th against the run and 30th against the pass.
Wide receiver - Jamison Crowder v Oakland Raiders
Crowder has had a touchdown in his last three games.
The Raiders defense is ranked 27th against the pass.
Tight end - Dallas Goedert v Seattle Seahawks
If you don’t want to pay up for Ertz, consider Goedert (maybe even stacking with Carson Wentz).
In his last four games Goedert has produced three touchdowns. The Seahawks defense is 28th against the pass and well Wentz’s wide receivers haven’t been doing him much good.
9. Last Minute Notes
Keep an eye on who is chalk and who is flying under the radar with good matchups.
Weather matters but maybe not how you think, the wind is the number one priority. That is followed by a warm weather team going to a cold weather outdoor venue. Looking at you Dallas!
The injury report is so important. Backups in good matchups are going to get you a step up on the competition.
As always good luck…and keep your stats close and your fantiq.io app closer!
Come talk to me on Twitter @neverenoughglt