DFS: Week Stats Don’t Mean…?
NFL 2019 Statistically Speaking Week Stats Don’t Mean…?
Okay, that may be a little harsh. Stats are important? Let’s look at the winning lineup for DraftKings $1NFL $1.2M Play-Action 100,000.00 Week 8.
QB Matthew Stafford v New York Giants
Stafford drafted 17.41%
RB Latavius Murray v Arizona Cardinals (No Alvin Kamara)
Murray drafted 27.21%
RB Tevin Coleman v Carolina Panthers
Coleman drafted 4.60%
WR Copper Kupp v Cincinnati Bengals
Kupp drafted 8.41%
WR Mike Evans v Tennessee Titans
Evans drafted 7.69%
WR Kenny Golladay v Detroit Lions
Golladay drafted 23.22%
TE Jonnu Smith v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Smith drafted 7.28%
Flex Chris Carson v Atlanta Falcons
Carson drafted 20.51%
Now for the winning lineup for DraftKings NFL $1.2M Play-Action $100,000. Winner Week 9.
Quarterback, Russell Wilson drafted by 14.46%
Running back, Devin Singletary drafted by 6.58%
Running back Jaylen Samuels drafted by 38.04%
Wide receiver Tyler Lockett drafted by 15.62%
Wide receiver Mike Evans drafted by 11.71%
Wide receiver DK Metcalf drafted by 15.38%
Tight end Zac Ertz drafted by 14.57%
Flex Josh Jacobs drafted by 20.27%
Defense Steelers drafted by 10.21%
So what have we got? First congratulations ahans31 the DraftKings $100,000.00 winner! And yes DFS is different than your fantasy league but stats matter in both. As you know your fantasy league your line-ups are pretty much set (except for the waiver wire) and DFS you choose daily (DUH)!
So let’s see how the stats hold up for the winner.
In week 8, notice that the winner had drafted four players who were under 10% owned. While in week nine the winner drafted only one player that was under 10% owned.
What does this mean? Stats really do matter. In week nine match-ups matter. Notice that the winner played four players from the same game. It was the game with one of the highest over/under the Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Seattle Seahawks. QB, Wilson, WR Lockett and Metcalf and WR Evans.
RB Singletary was going against the 28th defense against the rush
RB Samuels was a replacement for James Connor, and Samuels was coming back from an injury. The Colts were 18th against the rush. However, Samuels is a dual threat running back. While he only had eight rushes, he also had 13 targets and 13 receptions for 73 yards.
RB Jacobs as flex. Jacobs against the Lions who were 27th against the run.
Match-up stats are important, especially for DFS where you can pick a new line-up each game you play.
The people who set the over/under and the game spreads generally are very close to what the game script will play out. Pay attention to the over/under. Don’t be afraid to stack within the same game. In fact, if the over/under is going to be a shoot-out, stack within the same game.
Studs are studs, even in what potentially looks like a bad match-up. And these are players that will generally be under drafted.
For instance although he wasn’t part of the winning line-up Chris Carson was in play, even going against the team ranked first against the run. Carson rushed for 105 yards.
Los Angeles Chargers running back Melvin Gordon was trending up. He had been out-touching Austin Ekeler 8 touches to 3 the week before. While Ekeler’s snap counts remained consistent week seven and week eight, Gordon’s snaps counts gradually increased. He was slowly spending more time on the field. The second place in the NFL 1.5M Play-Action rostered Gordon.
Mid-season changes matter.
The Chargers fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt before week 9. Case Keenum for Washington was ruled out and rookie Dwayne Haskins in as quarterback. More touches for safe running game in both instances.
Gordon 20 rushing attempts for 80 yards and two touchdowns.
Adrian Peterson 18 rushing attempts for 108 yards.
Remember in DFS tournaments you are playing against a gazillion people. From first to 3,479th (yep that was me) is the difference between rostering TJ Hockenson over Zac Ertz, or the Bills defense over the Steelers. In ain’t much and while there is some luck involved, knowing your stats helps too.
For Instance: Hockenson had the better match-up week 9. The Raiders defense is not only 32nd against the pass but they were especially vulnerable to tight ends in the passing game.
Hockenson week 8 against the NY Giants: 1 target 1 catch for 21 yards; Week 7 against the Minnesota Vikings 5 targets 3 catches for 32 yards; Week 6 against the Green Bay Packers 6 targets 4 receptions for 21 yards. You see where I am going with this? Hockenson was on the field for 67% offensive snap counts weeks 7 and 8. While Hockenson had the “better match-up” his trending stats should have not inspired confidence.
Meanwhile, Ertz was going up against a defense that was 14th against the pass. However, week 8 he was targeted 4 times 2 receptions for 20 yards; week 7 he was targeted 6 times 2 receptions for 38 yards; week 6 he was targeted 9 times 4 receptions and 54 yards. In weeks 7 and 8, Ertz was on the field for 80% and 90% of the offensive snap counts.
Ertz was the better choice regardless of “match-up” because of his time on the field for offensive plays (opportunity) and his targets.
Stats matter. And we will have some DFS worthy stats for your week 10 DFS line-ups Friday. Come see us.
You know where to go for your statistics. FREE data at appstore.com/fanatiq
Come talk to me on Twitter @neverenoughglt