Week 2 NFL 2019: Man Down!!!
Statistically Speaking Week 2 NFL 2019: Man Down!!!
So it is week two in the NFL and things are getting a little less fuzzy? I mean Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes. Miami Dolphins is still well…a dumpster fire. But there was something…different…something. Oh yeah, MAN DOWN!
And for week two these men are going to impact your fantasy rosters. So let’s get to it:
Drew Brees, Quarterback, New Orleans Saints
Brees injury occurred when his hand, specifically his thumb, met with Aaron Donald’s hand (I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that that was statistically the only hit he had…I kid he had one more!). Brees will presumably be out 6-8 weeks.
Michael Gallup, Wide Receiver, Dallas Cowboys
Gallup will approximately 2-4 weeks as he gets his knee “cleaned up”. Before this Gallup was on the end of 15 targets with zero drops, 13 receptions for 226 yards. He was averaging 17.8 yards per reception. Gallup led the Cowboys’ wide receivers in targets.
Ben Roethlisberger, Quarterback, Pittsburgh Steelers
Roethlisberger left the game after grabbing his elbow on a non-contact injury. He will require surgery and is out for the season. In the two games he played, Roethlisberger had 62 passing attempts, completing 35 for a 56.5% completion rate. The Steelers finished the first game amassing three total points. Before the injury in the second game he was 8 of 15 for 75 yards.
Trevor Siemian, Quarterback, New York Jets
Siemian was in for Sam Darnold who is out with mononucleosis. Siemian went out in the first quarter with an injury to his lower leg.
NEXT MAN UP
New Orleans Saints: Teddy Bridgewater, Quarterback
Bridgewater was the highest paid back-up quarterback. When he came in to replace Brees against the Los Angeles Rams, he went 17-for-30 for 165 yards. He had two carries for five yards. The schedule for the 1-1 Saints for the next six weeks are: @ Seahawks; v Cowboys; v Buccaneers; @ Jaguars; @ Bears; v Cardinals
When Bridgewater entered the game his targets were dispersed as follows: Michael Thomas 11, Jared Cook 5, Alvin Kamara 3, Taysom Hill 3, and Tre’Quan Smith 2. In 2018 Bridgewater played in five games. He had 23 attempts, 14 completions for 118 yards with one interception and one touchdown.
Before his horrific leg injury, Bridgewater’s last full season in 2015, he attempted 447 passes completing 292 for a 64.4 completion percentage. He amassed 2919 passing yards with 14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. By comparison last season Brees attempted 489 passes with 364 completions for a 74.4 completion rate. He passed for 3992 yards with 32 touchdowns and five interceptions.
Fantasy Impact: No disrespect to Bridgewater but there is a decline in the fantasy value of the wide receivers. Ted Ginn Jr. didn’t get any targets once Bridgewater entered the game. Expect defenses to make Bridgewater prove himself, which means Alvin Kamara will see more defenders than he is normally used to when getting off the line. You will start Thomas but temper your expectations, while the average yards per pass will only decrease by .5 yards his number of attempts and completions are less than what Thomas is used to seeing. A tight end is always a shaky quarterback's best friend, so Jared Cook might see an uptake.
Dallas Cowboys Wide Receivers
Although he wasn’t the first choice of most fantasy players, Gallup led the Cowboys in targets (15), receptions (13) and receiving yards (226). Those targets have to go somewhere. Look towards ex-Packer Randall Cobb. Cobb is averaging close to 73% of the team’s offensive snaps. Cobb is also close to a slot receiver as he is averaging 5.0 in target depth. Cobb was third on the team in targets (11). He is a safe bet to get an increase in targets, receptions and fantasy value.
But if you are the gambler, check out Devin Smith. Smith is a boom or bust but for the long pass that would usually go Gallup’s way. His first catch was week two and it was 51-yard touchdown. Expect a little more of that. Smith will give you a high ceiling, but his floor is pretty low.
Pittsburgh Steelers, Mason Rudolph, Quarterback
There seems to be no doubt about the work ethic and grind that Rudolph has. And in his work in week two he attempted 19 passes completing 12 for 112 yards. He threw two touchdowns and one interception. He will still be playing behind the third best offensive line according to Pro Football Focus. So who will benefit?
Look for tight end Vance McDonald. McDonald was on the receiving end of Rudolph’s two touchdown passes. He was targeted seven times catching seven passes for the two touchdowns and 38 yards. JuJu Smith-Schuster led the team in targets with 16 catching 11. Smith-Schuster will be under more pressure to “prove” that he is the number one receiver. So perhaps you might want to take a peek at Diontae Johnson. Johnson has been targeted nine times with four receptions and one dropped pass. But spoiler alert, James Washington is the receiver Rudolph is most familiar with, as they were college teammates.
Here is the skinny. The Steelers weren’t exactly excelling at this football game the first two games. The receivers are dropping passes (although Washington has not dropped a pass yet), the team after two weeks leading the league with five dropped passes. Running back James Conner is averaging 2.57 yards a carry. He has been targeted eight times with seven receptions with one dropped pass and 56 yards. So even with Roethlisberger in the offense was not a fine tuned machine.
The secondary even with the addition of Minkah Fitzpatrick needs work having been torched by Tom Brady for 341 yards and three touchdowns; and Russel Wilson for 300 yards and three touchdowns. So bet on tight end McDonald and expect to see lots of Connor.
New York Jets, Quarterback, Luke Falk
Not knowing how severe Trevor Siemian’s injury is or how long Faulk will be pressed into duty really doesn’t matter. Head coach Adam Gase has yet to live up to the moniker of “offensive guru”. And yes, he has injuries, but he also has Le’Veon Bell who might be the only choice for your fantasy prospects.
It is only week three and your team is getting better. Remember it’s a marathon not a sprint.
Come talk to me on Twitter @neverenoughglt
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