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Week 4… Sh*t Happens… Don’t Overthink It!

Statistically Speaking NFL 2019 Week 4… Sh*t Happens… Don’t Overthink It!


Is it just me or was week four just a big pile of what the fu*k is happening? And it wasn’t just the numbers, it was logic going against statistics. But it’s okay because remember shit happens and sometimes you just have to roll with it.


Cleveland Browns v Baltimore Ravens: Ravens 7-point favorite over/under 45.5

Final score Browns 40 - Ravens 25


Quarterback Baker Mayfield: 20-of-30, 342 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 1 sack, 102.4 QBR

Running Back Nick Chubb: 20 rushes, 165 yards, 3 touchdowns, 8.3 yard per rush, 4 targets, 3 receptions, 18 yards

Wide Receiver Jarvis Landry: 10 targets, 8 receptions, 167 yards, 0 touchdowns

Wide Receiver Odell Beckham Jr.: 7 targets, 2 receptions, 20 yards, 0 touchdowns

Tight End Ricky Seals-Jones: 3 targets, 3 receptions 82 yards, 1 touchdown


Quarterback Lamar Jackson: 24-of-34, 247 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 4 sacks, 9 rushes, 66 yards, 1 fumble, QBR 96.1

Running Back Mark Ingram: 12 rushes, 71 yards, 0 touchdowns, 5.9 yards per rush

Wide Receiver Marquise Brown: 7 targets, 4 receptions, 22 yards

Wide Receiver Willie Snead IV: 2 targets, 2 receptions, 61 yards, 1 touchdown

Tight End Mark Andrews: 8 targets, 4 receptions, 31 yards, 1 touchdown


So What Does It All Mean?

  1. Nick Chubb was on 64% of the snaps… that was down -35% from week three. In week three he had seven targets. In week four he had four targets. Which coincides with…

  2. Baker Mayfield had the second fastest average time to throw at 2.44 seconds. That was .60 seconds faster than weeks 1-3 (stat from @WFNCody). He also saw his best completion rate 66.7%; and yards per attempt 11.4.


Kansas City Chiefs v Detroit Lions: Chiefs 6.5-point favorite over/under 54

Final score Chiefs 34 - Lions 30


Quarterback Patrick Mahomes: 24-of-42, 315 yards, 0 touchdowns, 6 carries, 54 yards

Running Back LeSean McCoy: 11 rushes, 56 yards, 1 touchdown, 5.1 average

Running Back Darrel Williams: 8 rushes, 13 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1.6 average

Wide Receiver Demarcus Robinson: 9 targets, 4 receptions, 35 yards, 0 touchdowns

Wide Receiver Sammy Watkins: 6 targets, 3 receptions, 54 yards, 0 touchdowns

Tight End Travis Kelce: 8 targets, 7 receptions, 85 yards, 0 touchdowns


Quarterback Matthew Stafford: 21-of-34, 291 yards, 3 touchdowns, 4 sacks, 2 carries, 18 yards, 1 fumble, QBR 118.6

Running Back Kerryon Johnson: 26 rushes, 125 yards, 4.8 yards per average, 0 touchdown, 1 fumble

Wide Receiver Kenny Golladay: 9 targets, 5 receptions, 67 yards, 2 touchdowns

Wide Receiver Marvin Jones Jr.: 5 targets, 3 receptions, 77 yards, 0 touchdowns

Tight End TJ Hockenson: 3 targets, 3 receptions, 27 yards, 1 touchdown


So What Does It All Mean?

  1. Although Patrick Mahomes had no touchdown passes (in a dome) he still passed for 315 yards and rushed six times for 54 yards. His 57% completion rate and his 7.5 yards per attempt were lower than weeks 1-3 where he averaged 9.7 yards per attempt and 67.9% completion rate.

  2. Demarcus Robinson had the second most air yards in week four with 165 air yards. He is currently pulling in 21 targets and 14 receptions.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Los Angeles Rams: Rams 9.5-point favorite over/under 49.5

Final score Buccaneers 55 - Rams 40


Quarterback Jameis Winston: 28-of-41, 385 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 sack, QBR 120.5

Running Back Ronald Jones II: 19 carries, 70 yards, 3.7 average, 1 touchdown

Running Back Peyton Barber: 9 carries, 19 yards, 2.1 average, 1 touchdown

Wide Receiver Chris Godwin: 14 targets, 12 receptions, 172 yards, 2 touchdowns

Wide Receiver Mike Evans: 7 targets, 4 receptions, 89 yards, 1 touchdown

Tight End Cameron Brate: 3 targets, 3 receptions, 36 yards, 1 touchdown

Tight End OJ Howard: 3 targets, 3 receptions, 33 yards, 0 touchdowns


Quarterback Jared Goff: 45-of-68, 517 yards, 2 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 2 sacks, 1 fumble, QBR 80.3

Running Back Todd Gurley: 5 rushes, 16 yards, 2 touchdowns, 3.2 average, 11 targets, 7 receptions, 54 yards

Running Back Malcolm Brown: 5 rushes, 14 yards, 2.8 average 0 touchdowns

Wide Receiver Robert Woods: 15 targets, 13 receptions, 164 yards

Wide Receiver Cooper Kupp: 15 targets, 9 receptions, 121 yards, 1 touchdown

Tight End Gerald Everett: 8 targets, 5 receptions, 44 yards, 1 touchdown


So What Does It All Mean?

  1. Todd Gurley only had five rushes in a game that got out of hand quickly for the Los Angeles Rams. But Gurley had 11 targets which was 16% of the target share.

  2. Jared Goff has 68 pass attempts and 517 yards.

  3. Ronald Jones was in on 49% snaps which was up 17% from last week. But maybe more importantly he had 16 second half touches, Peyton Barber had one and Dare Ogunbowale had one touch in the second half.


Oakland Raiders v Indianapolis Colts: Colts 6.5-point favorite over/under 45

Final score Raiders 31 - Colts 24


Quarterback Derek Carr: 21-of-31, 189 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 sack, 1 fumble, QBR 105.4

Running Back Josh Jacobs: 17 carries, 79 yards, 4.6 average, 0 touchdowns, 2 targets, 2 receptions 29 yards

Wide Receiver Tyrell Williams: 7 targets, 3 receptions, 36 yards, 1 touchdown

Tight End Darren Waller: 8 targets, 7 receptions, 53 yards, 0 touchdowns


Quarterback Jacoby Brissett: 24-of-46, 265 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, 5 carries, 19 yards, QBR 82.2

Running Back Marlon Mack: 11 rushes, 39 yards, 3.5 average, 0 touchdowns,

Wide Receiver Parris Campbell: 8 targets, 5 receptions, 25 yards, 0 touchdowns

Wide Receiver Zach Pascal: 7 targets, 4 receptions, 72 yards, 0 touchdowns

Tight End Jack Doyle: 8 targets, 4 receptions, 22 yards, 1 touchdown

Tight End Eric Ebron: 5 targets, 1 reception, 48 yards, 1 touchdown


So What Does It All Mean?

  1. When TY Hilton is not in the target count for the Colts is annoyingly even: Parris Campbell and Jack Doyle both had 8 targets; Zach Pascal had 7 targets; Chester Rogers and Nyheim Hines had 6 targets; and Eric Ebron had 5 targets.

  2. Although head coach Jon Gruden talked about getting Josh Jacobs in on more passes, he was targeted only 2 times Sunday. DeAndre Washington was in for 3 targets. Jacobs averaged 4.6 rushing yards Sunday, which is right around his average 4.95 for the season. However, he is still not a factor when they need to pass.


In addition to stats pay attention to the trends of both your team and your fantasy players.


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Come talk to me on Twitter @neverenoughglt


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