• Gladys Louise Tyler

It’s Patrick Mahomes and Wait 5 Rounds

Statistically speaking…It’s Patrick Mahomes and Wait 5 Rounds

It is inevitable. It is going to happen, someone (maybe you) will draft Patrick Mahomes in the first round. You will draft him because you will be counting on his statistical anomaly of a year repeating itself. And I have to say that every draft I have been a part in so far, Mahomes has gone in the top five, statistically speaking is that prudent?

Last year’s top 13 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks (week 1 through 17)

  1. Patrick Mahomes - 417.08 points

  2. Matt Ryan - 354.46 points

  3. Ben Roethlisberger - 341.36 points

  4. Deshaun Watson - 331.70 points

  5. Andrew Luck - 327.42 points

  6. Aaron Rodgers - 312.58 points

  7. Jared Goff - 310.32 points

  8. Drew Brees - 304.48 points

  9. Russell Wilson - 298.92 points

  10. Dak Prescott - 285.90 points

  11. Philip Rivers - 285.02 points

  12. Cam Newton - 282.60 points

  13. Kirk Cousins - 282.62 points

So what are you going to do? While most drafts (not including mine) have Mahomes going in the first two rounds, the next quarterback off the board isn’t until the fifth round. The question is who is up next?

2.10 Patrick Mahomes

5.03 Andrew Luck

5.04 Deshaun Watson

5.07 Aaron Rodgers

6.04 Baker Mayfield

6.11 Matt Ryan

7.01 Drew Brees

7.10 Carson Wentz

8.04 Russell Wilson

8.06 Kyler Murray (overall drafting position)

16th Patrick Mahomes

46th Andrew Luck

49th Deshaun Watson

51st Aaron Rodgers

64th Baker Mayfield

72nd Matt Ryan

85th Carson Wentz

86th Drew Brees

87th Russell Wilson

92nd Cam Newton

Patrick Mahomes Round 2: Pick 6

Deshaun Watson Round 4: Pick 1

Andrew Luck Round 5: Pick 2

Aaron Rodgers Round 5: Pick 5

Baker Mayfield Round 5: Pick 10

Matt Ryan Round 6: Pick 8

Russell Wilson Round 7: Pick 6

Carson Wentz Round 7: Pick 7

Cam Newton Round 7: Pick 12

Kyler Murray Round 8: Pick 4

You get the idea. Here are the good, the bad, and the ugly for each pick.

Andrew Luck

  • the good= 2018 Luck had 23 touchdowns and 8 interceptions

  • the bad= receivers had 28 dropped passes (third most in the league)

  • the ugly= will Luck stay healthy already suffering from calf injury

Deshaun Watson

  • the good= 2018 had 551 yards rushing with five rushing touchdowns

  • the bad= 2018 was under pressure 43% of the time he dropped back

  • the ugly= was sacked 62 times last season and the offensive line hasn’t improved that much

Aaron Rodgers

  • the good= 2018 threw for 25 touchdowns and 2 interceptions playing on an MCL injury

  • the bad= Mike McCarthy is gone but new coach Matt LaFleur’s Tennessee Titans ranked 27th in offensive scoring and 25th in offensive yards last season

  • the ugly= besides Davante Adams the rest of the receiving corps is untested and Jimmy Graham has not done anyone any favors

Baker Mayfield

  • the good= Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, David Njoku

  • the bad= 2018 threw for 27 touchdowns but also tossed in 14 interceptions

  • the ugly= according to the Mayfield has the third easiest schedule against the pass…ugly for the opposition (there really is nothing but upside for Mayfield and the Browns…what…what Kool-Aid?)

Matt Ryan

  • the good= play 13 games indoor for the 2019 season

  • the bad= the number of passes will most likely decrease with a healthy Devonta Freeman

  • the ugly= a stretch to find ugly but in the past after a big year he has generally had a noticeable regression in touchdowns

Russell Wilson

  • the good= 2018 season 35 touchdowns and 7 interceptions

  • the bad= loss of Doug Baldwin

  • the ugly= sacked 51 times (most in his career)

Carson Wentz

  • the good= has the fifth easiest schedule against the pass according to

  • the bad= hasn’t played a full season last two seasons

  • the ugly= the need to keep him on the field may cut into his rushing stats

Cam Newton

  • the good= healthy Greg Olsen, DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel

  • the bad= healthy Christian McCaffrey takes away some of Newton’s rushing stat

  • the ugly= the shoulder and new throwing motion?

Kyler Murray

  • the good= Kliff Kingsbury air raid offense

  • the bad= Kliff Kingsbury air raid offense in NFL

  • the ugly= inexperience quarterback on a putrid offensive line

So what are you going to do? Wait on your quarterback, unless his name is Mahomes.

All stats are pulled from Fanatiq. Download today for free at